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Fox News Power Rankings: Arizona is Trump’s to lose, but this election is anyone’s to win

Fox News Power Rankings: Arizona is Trump’s to lose, but this election is anyone’s to win

After an unprecedented four years in politics, voters are evenly divided on who should next lead the free world. Former President Donald Trump is one state closer to a stunning comeback in this week’s Fox News Power Rankings; the final forecast before the election. But Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both have pathways to victory, and among many scenarios, it is plausible that Democrats win by a single electoral vote. Americans feel overwhelmed at the end of this presidential cycle. They have grappled with rising prices, illegal immigration, abortion laws, two global conflicts and the sudden departure of an incumbent from the presidential race. Meanwhile, Trump faced indictments over Jan. 6 and storing classified documents, crushed more than a dozen rivals after reentering the presidential race, and survived two assassination attempts. Through it all, the former president has kept an unbreakable bond with his voters. For more than a year, Trump has received support from between 48% to 50% of voters in the Fox News Poll, while support for the Democratic candidate has been more elastic. Now, as the final week of the campaign begins, this electorate is locked in. Polls show a tight national race and curiously, the battleground states are just as close. This weekend, Harris spoke at a rally with Michelle Obama in Michigan with a sharply negative message about Trump and women’s health. The tone stood in contrast to previous appearances by the first lady and is a sign that the campaign feels the race is close, or even that they are behind. On Sunday, the vice president went to Philadelphia. There are more voters here than any other city in battleground Pennsylvania and combined, Black and Hispanic people make up the majority of its population. Those voters remain a weakness of Harris’ new coalition. FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: VOTER OUTREACH, BALLOT EFFICIENCY AND A LITTLE HOUSEKEEPING Harris’ visit to a Puerto Rican restaurant the same day, however, proved to be more helpful than the campaign could have expected. Later that night, Trump made his closing arguments at Madison Square Garden. The event was visually powerful. Some Republicans on the fence about “MAGA” who saw throngs of supporters in red hats in Manhattan could have been persuaded that the movement is more popular and inclusive than before. But the program gave Democrats new attack lines about Trump and his allies’ dark rhetoric, and included jokes from an insult comedian about Puerto Rican, Latino, and Jewish people. The Trump campaign distanced itself from the remarks Monday, telling Fox News the joke “does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign.” These moments are not quite the strategic mistakes that some observers believe them to be. Trump has a long record of comments like these, and they help drive his supporters to the polls. But there is a large Puerto Rican community in Pennsylvania, where the margins will matter. 5 NUMBERS THAT WILL DECIDE THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION The rally was a bow to the campaign’s full-throated effort to turn out young males, including low-propensity voters. This could be the bloc that gets Trump over the line on November 5. But last week, there were rumblings that this could be a reunion with Nikki Haley to play for the 20% of higher-propensity, non-MAGA Republicans who say they will vote for Harris in November. This event was not that. The former president remains very well-positioned on two of the top three issues. The economy is by far and consistently the most important issue in deciding voters’ ballots. Voters say Trump will better handle the issue by 7 points. He is even more heavily favored on immigration at 15 points. The strength reverses for abortion, where voters favor Harris by 13 points. The issues polling looks less lopsided further down the list, though still with a Trump advantage. Harris leads on health care, climate change and election integrity, while Trump is ahead on Israel, crime, and guns. Fox’s latest survey also asked voters which issue was motivating them to vote. 12% said the economy, but 11% chose candidate character and values, and 10% said protecting democracy, rights, and freedoms would get them to the polls. The presidential race is a toss-up. Neither Harris nor Trump have the 270 electoral votes required to win the race. They need to win the right combination of six toss-up states worth a total 82 electoral votes to bring it home. Surveys show races within the margin-of-error in all the battleground states, but when looked at together, the polling in Arizona tells a different story. In eight high-quality polls conducted in this state since August, Trump has been ahead in seven. His edge has been between 1-6 points. That advantage does not exist for Harris or Trump in any other battleground state.  Immigration continues to be a highly important issue in Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico.  In the latest Wall Street Journal survey, 25% of voters said immigration was the most important issue to their vote, higher than any other battleground. It was a “deal-breaker” issue for 24% of voters. And Arizona voters preferred Trump on the issue by 10 points. Trump allies do not appear to be a drag. Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is less popular with voters despite their shared policies and traits (her Senate race remains Lean D). But the level of ticket-splitting is high and has endured throughout the campaign. This is still a highly competitive race. If Trump loses, it will be because of suburban growth and non-MAGA Republican voters, who are a strong faction. There is also an abortion measure on the ballot. But the statewide polling has been directionally consistent and immigration reigns supreme.  Arizona moves from Toss Up to Lean R. (Fox News Power Rankings are nonpartisan pre-election predictions. Each ranking is informed by data, reporting, and analysis.) Battleground states have been won and lost together in recent elections. Trump won the bulk of them in 2016; Biden flipped them

America is a decomposing myth

America is a decomposing myth

The world, we are told, is on the eve of witnessing the most consequential US presidential election since witnessing the last most consequential US presidential election. The hyperbole has a familiar ring because the so-called “stakes” have a familiar ring. Anyone with even a passing understanding of American history knows that presidential elections have always been cast as a binary choice between the past and future, prosperity and decay, peace and war, and, lately, democracy and authoritarianism. The myth that girds these “choices” is that American voters have a choice at all; that the two dominant political parties are, save the glib edges, ideological adversaries when, on, say, urgent matters of war and peace, they remain steadfast soulmates to the core. The billionaire oligarchs who run the whole decrepit show in America know that “democracy” is a sweet illusion meant to convince the gullible that party 1 is different from party 1a. That is the stubborn conundrum confronting Arab and Muslim American voters: The leaders of party 1 and party 1a have, on the defining issue of these awful times, promoted and defended a blatant genocide in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. So, who to choose or whether to choose at all? Remember, there is no “daylight” on this cowardly, abominable score between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Both have played willing and enthusiastic handmaidens to their indicted darling in the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Both have backed every sickening measure of the state-engineered atrocities that have killed more than 43,000 (and counting) mostly Palestinian children and women – the carpet bombing, the deliberate starvation, the denial of medical care, the spread of disease, the forced marches, and on and on and on. Both refuse, of course, to use the short, sharp word “genocide” to describe – not as a rhetorical cudgel, but as a matter of international law – the crimes being committed by an apartheid state in Gaza and the West Bank. Both believe unquestionably that Israel has the absolute “right to defend itself” despite the ongoing “extermination” of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. And when their fellow citizens took to the streets and university campuses to demand a stop to the wholesale killing and apocalyptic destruction, Democrats and Republicans dismissed these enlightened Americans as “terrorist” sympathisers and applauded the draconian efforts by powerful, entrenched interests to silence the “protesters” through force, threats, and intimidation. But, as election day approaches, fretting Democrats and their compliant allies – among the “progressive” cognoscenti in the mainstream media ecosystem – have grown ever more nervous. Their palpable anxiety has been on puffing display on forgettable cable TV programmes and in forgettable online columns meant to reassure one another that everything will turn out all right. Alas, for the forlorn, a spate of national and state polls – if they are accurate – reveal a deadlocked race for the White House. In some “swing” states with could-possibly-tip-the-scales-sized Arab and Muslim populations, Trump appears to be edging ahead. The prospect that America may soon elect a fascist as commander-in-chief is registering with Kamala Harris and obedient company in the Democratic Party establishment and beyond. Oh heavens, what shall we do? “Outreach.” Yes, “outreach”. “Outreach” is a euphemism for pretending to “listen to” Arab and Muslim voters when, all along, Harris et al have ignored a grieving community that the Democratic nominee for president suddenly thinks she can mollify with meaningless bromides. “We are working night and day to arrange a ceasefire in Gaza,” Harris keeps repeating like a wind-up metronome. Sure, you are. The obscene “facts on the ground” confirm that your peace-making pleas are a hollow, cynical pantomime. When “outreach” doesn’t work, Harris and the “progressive” wailing heads have resorted, in effect, to blackmail. Arab and Muslim Americans will be responsible, they say, for electing a Muslim-banning autocrat if they cast a “protest vote” against the top of the Democratic ticket. Apart from being an outrageous affront, blackmail is rarely a convincing strategy. This is my advice to the Arab and Muslim American voters in crucial bellwether states like Michigan: Do not listen to craven politicians and journalists who, in lockstep with the leaders of party 1 and party 1a, have granted Israel the uncontested licence to kill as many Palestinians as it wants to, for as long it wants to, for whatever reason it wants to. To the uncommitted movement, I urge you to remain uncommitted in guise and spirit. Do not be dissuaded from remaining faithful to your conscience by the appeals of charlatans who believe that Palestinian lives are cheap and disposable. Do not reward the charlatans who believe that Palestinian lives are cheap and disposable by heeding their specious advice and choosing between disingenuous leader 1 and disingenuous leader 1a. Do not be swayed by the predictable stable of apologists who claim that electing Trump would only make matters “worse” for Arab and Muslim Americans. Muslim and Arab Americans have, for generations, been viewed as fifth columnists who pose an existential threat to America. You cannot be trusted. You remain “outsiders”. Accordingly, you have been treated with disdain. You have been jailed or blacklisted for speaking out. Your loyalty has been questioned. You have been routinely taken for granted. You are expected to behave. You are supposed to remain invisible and mute. Do not oblige the charlatans. I implore you, instead, to exercise your agency by depriving leader 1 and leader 1a of what they value most – position and power. Again, to the uncommitted movement, I urge you to remain uncommitted. Decency and history demand that, together, you shout: “Enough.” It is the right and just thing to do. Opting for leader 1 or leader 1a is a vote – whether you are prepared to admit it or not – for the co-architects of the genocide that has turned Gaza into dust and memory. You will not be to blame if Trump prevails. That will be the exclusive fault of millions of

CNN bans conservative commentator after verbal attack on Mehdi Hasan

CNN bans conservative commentator after verbal attack on Mehdi Hasan

US network says it has ‘zero room for racism’ after Girdusky tells Hasan: ‘I hope your beeper doesn’t go off.’ CNN has banned a conservative commentator after he verbally attacked British-American journalist Mehdi Hasan by referring to a series of exploding handheld devices in Lebanon that targeted Hezbollah. “I hope your beeper doesn’t go off,” Ryan James Girdusky said during a heated debate with Hasan, a prominent broadcaster and outspoken critic of Israel’s war on Gaza, on the show CNN Newsnight with host Abby Phillip on Monday. In a statement, the network said: “There is zero room for racism or bigotry at CNN or on our air.” Nearly 40 people were killed and thousands wounded in two days of unprecedented attacks in September when pagers, walkie-talkies and other handheld communication devices exploded across Lebanon, which were blamed on Israel. Guests on CNN Newsnight were debating the upcoming United States presidential election and the controversial Madison Square Garden rally of Republican candidate Donald Trump, including remarks made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe about Puerto Rico. Hasan, founder of new media company Zeteo, criticised the rhetoric at the rally during which several speakers, including Trump, made racist and sexist comments aimed at several minority groups, including Black Americans, Latinos and Jews. At one point, Hasan acknowledged that the accusation that Trump and his supporters are Nazis is “inflammatory”. “But if you don’t want to be called Nazis, stop doing, stop saying,” Hasan said before he was interrupted and talked over by Girdusky, who went on to note that Hasan himself was called an “anti-Semite more than anyone at this table”. “I am in support of the Palestinians, so I am used to it,” Hasan said. Girdusky then replied, “I hope your beeper doesn’t go off”, in an apparent reference to the mass attacks in Lebanon. “Did you just say I should die? Did you just say I should be killed?” Hasan responded. Phillip, the host, chastised Girdusky and apologised to Hasan following a commercial break while noting that Girdusky had been removed from the panel of guests. “There is a line that was crossed there, and it’s not acceptable to me,” Phillip said. CNN also said in its statement, “We aim to foster thoughtful conversations and debate including between people who profoundly disagree with each other in order to explore important issues and promote mutual understanding.” Sharing @CNN’s statement and a quick message from me about what happened on tonight’s show. I take this very seriously and want to again apologize to @mehdirhasan and I hope he’ll join us another time. pic.twitter.com/O9l0Ftv5NZ — Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) October 29, 2024 “But we will not allow guests to be demeaned or for the line of civility to be crossed. Ryan Girdusky will not be welcomed back at our network,” it added. Hasan, who has been hosting Al Jazeera’s Head to Head show, has yet to issue a statement about the incident. He, however, shared the statements from CNN and Phillip on social media platform X. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft think tank, said, “Every day, we think we may have hit rock bottom, and every day we are proven wrong.” Girdusky later posted on X: “Apparently you can’t go on CNN if you make a joke. I’m glad America gets to see what CNN stands for.” Adblock test (Why?)

Israeli strikes reportedly kill more than 150 in northern Gaza and Lebanon

Israeli strikes reportedly kill more than 150 in northern Gaza and Lebanon

The attacks are carried out as the humanitarian situation in both places worsens and ceasefire talks resume with no expected breakthrough. More than 150 people are reported to have been killed in Israel’s latest attacks in northern Gaza and Lebanon. At least 93 Palestinians were killed when an Israeli attack flattened a five-storey residential building housing displaced people in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahiya on Tuesday, the head of Gaza’s Government Media Office said. Overnight, at least 60 people were killed in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. Israel carried out the attacks as the humanitarian situation in both Gaza and Lebanon deteriorates. Conditions in northern Gaza, which has been under an Israeli siege since early October, are particularly harsh. Despite the high death toll and worsening plight of those still living in northern Gaza, ceasefire talks that have resumed in Qatar are not expected to achieve a breakthrough while Israel has moved to halt the operations of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), which is the main lifeline for most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people. Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud, reporting from Deir el-Balah in Gaza, described harrowing scenes from the strike in Beit Lahiya. “The images we are seeing show that more bodies are being pulled from under the rubble, including women and children,” he said. Those being pulled from the rubble were reported to be bleeding “severely” with many “crushed by the heavy weight of the large pieces of concrete that collapsed on their heads while they were sleeping”. Dr Hussam Abu Safia, the director of Kamal Adwan Hospital, the main medical facility in northern Gaza, said more than 150 dead and wounded had arrived after the attack. However, he warned that many of those injured may die because of a lack of resources. Israeli forces detained dozens of medical staff at the hospital last week, leaving only three doctors. “We call on the world to send specialised medical delegations,” the doctor told Al Jazeera. ‘Most violent day’ In eastern Lebanon, overnight attacks in the Bekaa Valley killed at least 60 people and injured 58, the Ministry of Public Health reported. The highest death toll was in the town of Sahl Allak in Baalbek province, where 16 people were killed, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA). In Ramm, also in Baalbek, an Israeli air strike killed nine people, including a mother and her four children, the state news agency reported. Baalbek Mayor Bachir Khodr described the strikes as “the most violent day in Baalbek since the beginning of the aggression”. He said in a post on X that people remained trapped under the rubble. Israeli bombardment of the area as well as of southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs has intensified over the past several weeks as part of an offensive against Hezbollah that has also killed hundreds of civilians. In Gaza, at least 43,020 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since October 7, 2023. An estimated 1,139 people were killed in Israel during the Hamas-led attacks that day, and more than 200 were taken captive. Adblock test (Why?)

Former Trump aide Steve Bannon to be released from prison 1 week before Election Day

Former Trump aide Steve Bannon to be released from prison 1 week before Election Day

Steve Bannon, a former White House aide and longtime ally of former President Trump, was released from prison Tuesday after completing a four-month sentence for contempt of Congress. Bannon left the Federal Correctional Institution in Danbury, Connecticut, federal Bureau of Prisons spokesperson Kristie Breshears told the Associated Press. He is expected to hold a news conference later in the day in Manhattan, according to his representatives. He will also resume his “War Room” podcast on Tuesday. Bannon, 70, was jailed in July after the Supreme Court rejected his attempt to delay the prison sentence while he appeals his conviction. JUDGE ORDERS STEVE BANNON TO REPORT TO PRISON A jury found Bannon guilty in 2022 of two counts of contempt of Congress: one for refusing to sit for a deposition with the Jan. 6 House Committee and a second for refusing to provide documents related to his involvement in Trump’s reported efforts to overturn his loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. Bannon told reporters in July he was “proud” to begin his prison sentence and described himself as a “political prisoner.”  STEVE BANNON ‘PROUD’ TO BEGIN PRISON SENTENCE FOR CONTEMPT OF CONGRESS “I am going to prison. I’m proud to go to prison. I am proud of going to prison today,” Bannon said at a press conference held with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., outside the prison. “I am proud to go to prison. If this is what it takes to stand up to tyranny. If this is what it takes to stand up to the Garland corrupt, criminal DOJ. If this is what it takes to stand up to Nancy Pelosi, if this is what it takes to stand up to Joe Biden, I’m proud to do it.” Bannon’s release comes one week before Election Day, when Trump, a Republican, will seek to defeat Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and return to the White House. TRUMP ALLY STEVE BANNON FILES EMERGENCY MOTION SEEKING TO STAY OUT OF PRISON A federal appeals court panel upheld Bannon’s convictions in May. Bannon is now asking the full appeals court to hear his case. His legal team had argued that the congressional subpoena was invalid because Trump had asserted executive privilege. Prosecutors, though, say Bannon had left the White House years before and Trump had never invoked executive privilege in front of the committee. Bannon also faces criminal charges in New York state court, where prosecutors allege he duped donors who gave money to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Banon has pleaded not guilty to money laundering, conspiracy, fraud and other charges. He is set to go to trial in December.  Fox News Digital’s Danielle Wallace and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom backs candidate in Dem vs. Dem House race

California Gov. Gavin Newsom backs candidate in Dem vs. Dem House race

As California state Assemblymember Evan Low and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo vie to win the U.S. House election in California’s 16th Congressional District, Golden State Gov. Gavin Newsom has thrown his support behind Low in the Democrat versus Democrat showdown. “Evan Low embodies the very best of California’s values,” Newsom said in a statement, according to Politico. “We have worked shoulder-to-shoulder on some of our state’s most pressing issues, from protecting reproductive rights to tackling affordability for California families.” “Evan Low embodies the very best of California values. We have worked shoulder-to-shoulder on some of our state’s most pressing issues,” the governor said in a statement, according to NBC Bay Area. “Evan’s proven track record of delivering for Bay Area families makes him exactly the kind of representative CD-16 voters deserve in Washington.” In a post on X, Low said that he is “thrilled and deeply honored to have the endorsement” from the governor, whose “leadership and vision for CA have been an inspiration.” ‘PANDORA’S BOX’ OF POLYAMORY, CHILD MARRIAGES POSSIBLE UNDER PROPOSED CALIFORNIA AMENDMENT, GROUP WARNS Low wished Vice President Kamala Harris a happy birthday on Oct. 20. “Happy Birthday to our future president, Kamala Harris!” he tweeted. “I’m so proud to stand with you and honored to be running on the same Democratic Party ticket. Your leadership, tenacity, and dedication to fighting for justice and equality inspire us all. Here’s to many more years of breaking barriers and making history together!”  The district is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo, who did not seek re-election in 2024. ‘I WOULD NEVER TURN MY BACK ON PRESIDENT BIDEN’: NEWSOM SHOWS SUPPORT AT PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE Newsom, who has served as governor since early 2019, won re-election in 2022 after surviving a recall election in 2021. Last year, he debated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who at the time was running for the GOP presidential nomination. Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity moderated the debate.  During the debate, DeSantis called Newsom “a slick, slippery politician, whose state is failing.” DEMOCRAT SAN JOSE MAYOR DISAGREES WITH BIDEN WHITE HOUSE, SAYS COVID NOT TO BLAME FOR CRIME SPIKES DeSantis ultimately dropped his presidential bid in January and endorsed former President Donald Trump after Trump won the Iowa caucus.