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Why China isn’t as worried about Trump’s trade war as in 2018

Why China isn’t as worried about Trump’s trade war as in 2018

Taipei, Taiwan – As United States President Donald Trump kicks off a new trade war with China, analysts say he will face a much stronger and more prepared adversary in Beijing compared with his first term in office. Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has already imposed a 20 percent tariff on Chinese imports, citing Beijing’s alleged failure to curb the export of the deadly opioid fentanyl to the US. The tariff comes on top of previous duties imposed by Trump and former US President Joe Biden on more than $400bn worth of Chinese goods. After condemning the latest US tariffs as “bullying” and “intimidation,” Beijing hit back last week by announcing tariffs of 10-15 percent on numerous US agricultural goods, including corn, beef, pork, dairy and soybeans. The tariffs, which went into effect on Monday, followed Beijing’s announcement last month of a 10 percent tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, pick-up trucks, and some cars, and a 15 percent tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas. Advertisement “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end,” Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jiang told reporters last week. While the tit-for-tat measures recall Trump’s first trade war in 2018, both Washington and Beijing are facing very different conditions today than seven years ago. The world’s two biggest economies have steadily decoupled in recent years, reducing their mutual dependency and blunting the impact of tariffs, according to analysts. Christopher Beddor, a deputy China research director at the Beijing-based Gavekal Dragonomics, said the latest tariffs should be “pretty manageable” for China, and noted that they are significantly below the 60 percent rate threatened by Trump during his election campaign. “I don’t want to understate the impact – that’s almost a tripling of the effective tariff rates for Chinese goods that are coming into the United States, so it’s big,” Beddor told Al Jazeera. “But Chinese exports into the United States are a pretty modest share of its overall economy,” Beddor said. Declining trade share China’s share of total US trade – measured as the sum of exports and imports – dropped from 15.7 percent to 10.9 percent between 2018 and 2024, according to Bloomberg. Over the same period, the US’s share of China’s total trade fell from 13.7 percent to 11.2 percent. Lynn Song, chief Economist for Greater China at ING, said Beijing is not likely to be panicking over the tariffs – at least for now. Advertisement “While avoiding this sort of trade friction would’ve been preferable, it’s something that’s been planned for, so I wouldn’t say there’s a feeling of panic,” Song told Al Jazeera. “With that said, with every tariff escalation, there inevitably will be parts of trade which become unviable and companies that will be impacted.” Another factor mitigating the impact of tariffs, Lynn said, is that Chinese exporters such as Shein and Temu have found success selling low-cost goods directly to customers by taking advantage of a tariff exemption on shipments worth less than $800. Beijing has continually rolled out measures to insulate the economy from any trade shocks. At the “Two Sessions” meetings last week in Beijing, the National People’s Congress – the highest body of state power in China – announced several fiscal stimulus measures, including raising the debt level for local governments and issuing 1.3 trillion yuan ($179bn) in long-term treasury bonds. Carsten Holz, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said Beijing’s domestic policy moves have given it a significant buffer against US demands. “Even the effect of a complete Trump ban on imports from China – hardly realistic in an age when, for example, the bulk of iPhones are produced in China – may not make a dent larger than a fraction of a percentage point in China’s GDP,” Holz told Al Jazeera. “For an authoritarian leadership determined to project strength, this is unlikely to be enough to join what may look to the Chinese public like ‘peace talks’ with a foreign aggressor.” Advertisement Some analysts believe that despite its stronger position compared with 2018, Beijing still wishes to negotiate with Trump – at least for the moment. ‘Avoiding escalation’ One of the strongest signals that Chinese officials are open to talking is that their opening round of tariffs was relatively mild and restricted to a limited number of goods, suggesting a strategy of “avoiding escalation,” said Even Rogers Pay, a food and agricultural analyst at the Beijing-based research group Trivium China. “The retaliation demonstrates that while China’s government doesn’t intend to take trade pressure lying down, they are also not going to be baited into an escalatory trade conflict where early overreaction could make striking a deal more difficult,” Pay told Al Jazeera. “Instead, by applying moderate tariffs to a short list of key industries, Beijing is ramping up political pressure in the red states that are major exporters of corn, soybeans, sorghum and other farm products that they hope will bring Trump to the table.” Beijing may be angling for a “phase two” deal along the lines of the “phase one” deal struck with Trump in 2020 to bring an end to the first trade war, Pay said. Under the phase one deal, China pledged to buy $200bn in US goods and services, including agricultural products, over two years. Beijing, however, only fulfilled about 58 percent of this amount after trade was derailed by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Peterson Institute for Economic Research. John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, agreed that China can withstand the pressure but is also ready to negotiate. Advertisement “The government in China is, of course, worried, but won’t back down in a humiliating way. They would love to negotiate a deal, but if it can’t, they would have a ‘so-be it attitude’,” Gong told

A ‘dangerous’ moment: Advocates denounce arrest of activist Mahmoud Khalil

A ‘dangerous’ moment: Advocates denounce arrest of activist Mahmoud Khalil

Free speech groups point out that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) accused Khalil of leading “activities aligned with Hamas, a designated terrorist organization”. But analysts note that the department’s allegation falls short of more tangible claims. US law, for instance, prohibits anyone in the country’s jurisdiction from providing “material support” to terrorist organisations. The rationale provided for Khalil’s arrest, experts argue, was overly broad and could be wielded against any voices critical of Israel and US foreign policy. “It’s a loophole so big that you could drive a truck through it,” Will Creeley, the legal director of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), a free speech group, told Al Jazeera. “I think what’s perhaps most dangerous about this moment is that, given the rhetoric coming out of the administration today, folks across the country are going to think twice before they criticise the government, whether it’s the US government or Israeli government, and that chill is a real problem,” he added. The effort to connect criticism of Israel with support for terrorism also appears to mirror Project 2025, a controversial series of policy proposals for Trump’s second term compiled by the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank. The document drew alarm for its expansive interpretations of executive power, as well as its views on issues like the pro-Palestinian protest movement. One Project 2025 proposal states that pro-Palestine protests are part of a “highly organized, global Hamas Support Network (HSN) and therefore effectively a terrorist support network”. Greer has told media outlets that, when she spoke with ICE agents over the phone, they appeared to have incorrect information about Khalil’s immigration status, informing her they were going to revoke his student visa. Khalil, a graduate student at Columbia until December, was previously in the US on a student visa but has since obtained a green card, making him a lawful permanent resident of the country. Greer said that, when she informed ICE agents that he was a permanent resident, they said his green card would be revoked instead. Student negotiator Mahmoud Khalil speaks to media on the Columbia University campus on April 29, 2024 [Ted Shaffrey/AP Photo] Nithya Nathan-Pineau, a policy lawyer with the Immigrant Legal Resource Center, told Al Jazeera that green card status can be revoked under some circumstances, such as the discovery of fraudulent information in an immigration application or certain criminal activity. “I haven’t seen any information about criminal convictions or arrests,” she said. “It sounds like the ICE agents just unilaterally decided that whatever immigration status he had, it didn’t matter.” Greer said that she and Khalil’s wife were told he was being held in an immigration detention facility in New Jersey, but when they arrived, he was not there. Khalil has reportedly been moved to a detention centre in Louisiana. “This is a tactic that ICE loves to use, transferring someone to a facility that is further away from their legal assistance, community and loved ones,” said Nathan-Pineau. “It increases the psychological strain of detention.” Greer has challenged Khalil’s detention, and a federal court is scheduled to hear the case on March 12. Adblock test (Why?)

Israeli warplanes attack military sites in Syria’s southern Deraa province

Israeli warplanes attack military sites in Syria’s southern Deraa province

Syrian and Israeli media report air attacks on southern Deraa province targeting military sites of former Bashar al-Assad regime. Israeli military aircraft have carried out attacks in Syria’s southern province of Deraa, according to media reports and a monitoring group, in the latest attacks targeting military positions of the former Bashar al-Assad regime. The state-run Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) said the attacks on Monday night hit two towns in the north of Deraa, which is located 103km (64 miles) south of the capital Damascus. “Israeli occupation aircraft carried out several strikes on the surroundings of the towns of Jbab and Izraa in the north of Deraa,” SANA reported. The UK-based monitoring group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 17 strikes by Israeli fighter jets hit two military positions located in the towns: the former regime’s Artillery Regiment 89 and the 12th Brigade. No casualties have been reported so far, the observatory said. Israeli media outlet Channel 14 said the air attacks targeted al-Assad regime army outposts, weapons depots, radars, tanks and artillery that rebel groups in Syria were “trying to take over”. Advertisement Since the overthrow of Syrian President al-Assad in December, Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes on targets in Syria. According to the Syrian Observatory, Israel’s military carried out more than 500 air attacks on targets in Syria between December 8 and December 31, 2024, and has carried out 21 documented attacks so far this year. Most Israeli attacks have targeted facilities and weapons once held by the toppled regime’s forces in what Israel has said is a bid to prevent military assets from falling into the hands of forces hostile to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last month that southern Syria must be completely demilitarised, warning also that his government would not accept the presence of the forces of the new government in Damascus, headed by Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, near Israeli territory. Since the removal of al-Assad, Israel’s military has entered and taken control of territory inside a United Nations-patrolled buffer zone that has separated Israel and Syria in the occupied Golan Heights since 1974. Adblock test (Why?)

Trump-backed plan to avert shutdown heads for House vote

Trump-backed plan to avert shutdown heads for House vote

A plan to avert a partial government shutdown backed by President Donald Trump is heading for a House-wide vote on Tuesday. The House Rules Committee, the final gatekeeper before legislation hits the House of Representatives chamber, advanced the bill along party lines on Monday evening.  Tuesday is expected to first see a vote to allow for lawmakers to debate the bill, known as a “rule vote,” followed by a chamber-wide vote on the legislation itself later in the afternoon. It’s a major test for Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., as they seek to corral a House GOP conference that’s been exceptionally fractured on the subject of government funding. DEMOCRATS PRIVATELY REBUKE PARTY MEMBERS WHO JEERED TRUMP DURING SPEECH TO CONGRESS: REPORT As of late Monday evening, the bill’s chances of passing are still uncertain, even despite Trump himself making calls to potential holdouts. Two sources told Fox News Digital that Vice President JD Vance will be on Capitol Hill on Tuesday morning for House Republicans’ regular conference meeting, in an apparent bid to help push dissenters along. In addition to one staunch opponent, there are at least four other House Republicans who are undecided or leaning against the bill. With all lawmakers present, Johnson will likely only be able to lose two Republicans to pass a bill along party lines. Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., told reporters he was “currently” against the bill during the House’s 6 p.m. ET vote series. “I like the fact that it has less spending, but I hate the fact that they push it over to the war pimps at the Pentagon once again, and that’s kind of my hang-up,” Burchett said, adding that he hadn’t heard from Trump at the time.  Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., and Rep. Rich McCormick, R-Ga., signaled they were undecided, with the latter signaling he was leaning against the bill. “I refuse to paint myself in the corner. I don’t think that’s a smart thing to do. But as it stands right now, it doesn’t make sense to say anything is going to be different in September than it is right now,” McCormick said. The bill is a continuing resolution (CR), which is a rough extension of fiscal 2024 funding levels to keep the government open through the start of fiscal 2026 on Oct. 1. Republicans are largely expected to shoulder the bill alone in the House, despite a significant number of GOP lawmakers who would normally be opposed to extending Biden administration-era funding levels. House GOP leaders are confident, however, that it will pass. Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in anti-government shutdown votes in recent years, but this time their opposition Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has many left-wing lawmakers signaling their opposition to the bill. But what’s lending optimism to Johnson allies is the fact that two of the measure’s most vocal backers are the senior-most members of the hawkish House Freedom Caucus. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, the group’s policy chair, told Fox News Digital on Monday morning that a key part of conservatives’ pitch to fellow fiscal hawks is that Trump will likely still move to spend less money than the CR appropriates, including funding that he’s already blocked by executive order. “Step 1 is the CR freezes spending, guys, that’s a win; No. 2, no earmarks; No. 3, no giant omnibus; No. 4, we believe the president can impound,” Roy said of his pitch. Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris, R-Md., cited Republicans’ near-uniform vote on their Trump-backed federal budget bill last month. “There were a lot of people in Washington who said we would never pass a debt ceiling increase with only Republican votes, and we did in the House,” Harris said. “I think, similarly, there’s some people who, including some of the Democrats, who think, ‘Well, they’re going to have to come to us, because they can never pass a continuing resolution with only Republican votes.’ And I think we’re going to see the same result [Tuesday].” But with razor-thin margins, Johnson can afford precious little dissent to still pass the bill on party lines. At least one Republican is already opposed: Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., a staunch Johnson critic, wrote on X late Sunday, “Unless I get a lobotomy Monday that causes me to forget what I’ve witnessed the past 12 years, I’ll be a NO on the CR this week. It amazes me that my colleagues and many of the public fall for the lie that we will fight another day.” The 99-page legislation was released over the weekend. GOLDMAN SACHS HIGHLIGHTS TARIFF WARS WINNERS AND LOSERS The bill allocates an additional $8 billion in defense spending to mitigate national security hawks’ concerns, while non-defense spending that Congress annually appropriates would decrease by about $13 billion. There are also some added funds to help facilitate Immigrations and Customs Enforcement operations. Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending would be found by eliminating some “side deals” made during Fiscal Responsibility Act negotiations, House GOP leadership aides said. Lawmakers would also not be given an opportunity to request funding for special pet projects in their districts known as earmarks, another area that Republicans are classifying as savings. It allows Republican leaders to claim a win on no meaningful government spending increases over fiscal 2025.

Oregon governor declares March 10 ‘Abortion Provider Appreciation Day’: ‘Continue to have your back’

Oregon governor declares March 10 ‘Abortion Provider Appreciation Day’: ‘Continue to have your back’

Oregon’s governor has signed a proclamation that will make March 10 “Abortion Provider Appreciation Day,” in an effort to reaffirm her administration’s commitment to “maintaining access to abortion care across the state.” “Here in Oregon, we understand that abortion is healthcare, and providers are appreciated and can continue to provide care without interference and intimidation,” Governor Tina Kotek said in a statement. “To our providers and to the patients who live in Oregon or have been forced to retreat to our state for care, know that I continue to have your back.” Immediately following the November election, officials said Kotek directed the Oregon Health Authority (OHA) to partner with OHSU to replace the state’s three-year supply of Mifepristone — a medication approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) over 20 years ago for use in miscarriage management and to end a pregnancy. The governor said she continues to work with providers and the OHA to monitor and identify ways to mitigate federal threats to reproductive care. EFFORT TO STOP ‘EXTREME ABORTION ACTIVIST’ RAMPS UP IN PIVOTAL SWING STATE ELECTION “Oregon leads the nation with the strongest protections to access reproductive health care, including abortion. In these uncertain times, I’ll safeguard our values,” Kotek wrote in a post on X. Oregon Senate Republicans shared their reaction to Kotek’s declaration and slammed the governor for focusing on “abortion provider appreciation” over fixing other issues in the state. “Fix crime? Fix schools? Fix affordability? Nah… Kotek declares ‘Abortion Provider Appreciation Day’ instead,” the group wrote in post on X with a meme attached. In 2023, Kotek signed the Access to Reproductive Health Care law, House Bill 2002. The bill protects access to reproductive healthcare and provides state funding to support the work of community organizations and clinical partners to ensure that people across the state have broader access to the reproductive healthcare they need. The bill also allows minors to undergo sex reassignment surgery or obtain an abortion without their parent’s permission. OREGON REPUBLICANS SLAM BILL THAT ALLOWS SEX CHANGE, ABORTION FOR MINORS WITHOUT PARENTAL CONSENT: ‘A NEW LOW’ Justin Hwang, chairman of the Oregon Republican Party, previously said, “HB 2002 is what happens when progressive politicians and their far-left base put woke ideology ahead of common sense.” “This bill represents a new low for Oregon and an even bigger loss for children and parents,” Hwang told Fox News Digital. “Imagine being a father or mother who finds out that their child has made a life-changing decision without any consent or notification.” GOP LEADERS EXCORIATE OREGON DEMS FOR PASSING ‘MOST EXTREME’ ABORTION, TRANSGENDER LAW ‘IN HISTORY’ According to the governor’s office, reproductive health equity is a long-time priority of Kotek, both from her time as speaker of the Oregon House and during her tenure as governor. The Pro-Life group “Oregon Right to Life” reacted to the governor’s proclamation and said they would not be supporting the measure. CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP “You may have heard it’s Abortion Provider Appreciation Day—but we’re not celebrating abortion. We’re honoring a brave former abortion worker who chose to walk away from the industry,” the organization wrote in a post on X. According to Oregon Health Authority data, of the 10,075 abortions provided in Oregon in 2023, 1,661 were patients who reside out-of-state, reflecting a nearly 60% increase from the prior year. Fox News Digital’s Bradford Betz contributed to this report. 

Sean Curran, agent who protected Trump at Butler rally, sworn in as new US Secret Service director

Sean Curran, agent who protected Trump at Butler rally, sworn in as new US Secret Service director

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem swore in Sean Curran on Monday to serve as the director of the U.S. Secret Service. The swearing-in ceremony took place in the Oval Office, where President Donald Trump and Noem joined Curran. “Sean’s brave actions when he risked his life to help save President Trump’s life in Butler, Pennsylvania is a testament to his dedication to the mission of the US Secret Service,” Noem said in a statement. “With his decades of experience, he will return the Secret Service to focusing on its core mission: protecting American leaders and the U.S. financial system.” “I look forward to working alongside Sean to ensure that the Secret Service is stronger than ever before,” she added. WHO IS SEAN CURRAN? HEAD OF TRUMP’S PERSONAL DETAIL TO BE NOMINATED FOR SECRET SERVICE DIRECTOR Curran was among the group of agents who rushed to the stage to shield Trump with their bodies during a failed assassination attempt on July 13 in Butler that left two dead and the candidate with an injury to his ear. Curran appeared next to Trump in a series of photos showing the former and future president returning to his feet, blood running down his face and raising a fist, prompting cheers from the audience. Three bystanders were shot. They were firefighter Corey Comperatore, 50, who died from his injuries, David Dutch, 57, and James Copenhaver, 74, both of whom survived. SECRET SERVICE STRUGGLE TO PROTECT PRESIDENTS WON’T SEE ‘IMMEDIATE’ END EVEN WITH MORE MANPOWER: RETIRED AGENT In the aftermath, Trump praised the members of his personal detail and defended them from criticism. “Trump wanted someone he could trust, and they clearly have formed a bond after Pennsylvania,” former Secret Service agent Bill Gage said in January. SECRET SERVICE DIRECTOR CHEATLE RESIGNS AFTER MOUNTING PRESSURE IN WAKE OF TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT “Even with all of the mistakes in Butler, the mistakes were from the advance team. The agents assigned to Trump and Curran performed exactly as trained.” Curran maintains a low profile but is often pictured at Trump’s side.  He even has fans on TikTok. The attempt on Trump’s life led to intense scrutiny of the U.S. Secret Service and the resignation of Director Kimberly Cheatle. Fox News Digital’s Michael Ruiz contributed to this report.