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Dems need to ramp up early voting efforts to match GOP momentum in North Carolina: analyst

Dems need to ramp up early voting efforts to match GOP momentum in North Carolina: analyst

The Democratic Party needs to get competitive with Republicans in battleground North Carolina to turn out more voters before Election Day, says a former political consultant from the Tar Heel State.  Thomas Mills is publisher and founder of PoliticsNC, a website described as “Analysis, commentary, and opinion of North Carolina and national politics from the perspective of a center-left, 30-year veteran of the campaign battlefield.” Mills, who worked on the direct mail team for the Democratic National Committee in 2004, identified two problems that Democrats need to address, quickly, to compete in the state: early voting and low African American voter turnout. “They [Republicans] seem to be on the right track right now. Democrats, on the other hand, need to boost their turnout. I mean, what we don’t know is how people are voting,” Mills told Fox News Digital in an exclusive interview. “Some of these Republicans that are going to the polls may not actually be voting for Republicans. So, until we count the votes, we don’t know a whole lot.” Mills said that this cycle, Republicans are voting at “levels much higher than they have in the past.” NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS WILL DECIDE ON AMENDMENT TO EXPLICITLY BAR NONCITIZENS FROM VOTING IN ELECTIONS “The big question is, ‘What is driving the GOTV vote this cycle?’ They [Republicans] historically have not put any emphasis in North Carolina on early voting. In fact, in 2020, they actually told Republicans not to vote early, to vote on Election Day,” Mill said. “This year, they’ve taken a different tack. And they’re actively telling Republicans to go vote early.” Mills added that Republicans appear to be leading in early voting, which started on Oct. 17, but that until every ballot is counted, the parties won’t know whether these early votes represent any new voters. “Right now, they have more votes than Democrats,” he added. “The question is, are these voters that would have been voting on Election Day that are voting early, or are there new voters in the group that they’re hoping are going to push their margins up?” Early voting gives operatives the opportunity to go after less frequent voters, but North Carolina is not seeing a ton of new voters coming into the electorate this cycle, Mills said. BALANCE OF POWER: HELENE COULD SHIFT POLITICAL WINDS TOWARD TRUMP, NORTH CAROLINA, LAWMAKERS SAY The other key issue that could “hurt” Democrats in the battleground state, according to Mills, is low turnout among Black voters, a key voting bloc among Democrats. “Historically, African-Americans have been a pretty major part of the Democratic coalition, and they make up somewhere around 20% of the overall vote, and they vote at roughly 90% for Democrats. And what I saw when I was looking, comparing early votes from 2020 to 2024, is, a few days ago, they were down by about 67,000 votes or so from 2020, which four days into the early vote is not a catastrophe, because there’s going to be probably more than a million African Americans voting.” According to Mills, African Americans do not appear to be changing their voting behaviors, but there is rather a “depressed turnout” among the demographic. “If Democrats want to get them in the polls, they need to start trying to figure out what those are and getting them to go vote,” he said. “They have time to fix it, but they do need to figure out what the issue is, where the problems are and increase turnout.” Hurricane Helene recently made a deadly sweep across the southeast, impacting several counties in North Carolina ahead as the state was preparing for early voting to begin. Mill said he believes the event will have some effect on voter turnout, but that it won’t hurt either party. “I think when you have a natural disaster like that, it does affect turnout some because of accessibility, but more because people have either left the area because they don’t have water, they don’t have power, or they’re just too concerned with trying to take care of basic needs,” he said. “They’re not thinking about voting.”

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 975

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 975

As the war enters its 975th day, these are the main developments. Here is the situation on Sunday, October 27, 2024: Fighting Ukraine’s air defence units were deployed early on Sunday to repel a wave of Russian drones heading towards Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of the Ukrainian capital, said, telling residents to stay in shelters. Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its air defence units also destroyed overnight at least 30 Ukrainian drones over the southern regions of Voronezh, Bryansk, Oryol, Lipetsk and Belgorod. One woman was injured as a result of the drone attack on the border region of Belgorod, the region’s governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said on the Telegram messaging app. He added that a few cars were also damaged. Maxim Yegorov, governor of the Tambov region, some 450km (280 miles) southeast of Moscow, said a Ukrainian drone fell in the Michurinsky district of the region, sparking a short-lived fire but causing no injuries or material damage. Russian forces advanced further into several eastern Ukrainian towns, including in Selydove, getting closer to capturing the strategic city of Pokrovsk, Russian and Ukrainian bloggers said. The Russian news outlet SHOT said on Telegram that Russian troops control 80 percent of Selydove. Russian military bloggers also reported that Russian forces were close to taking over the town of Kurakhove southwest of Hirnyk. Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces had taken control of the Oleksandropil settlement in eastern Ukraine, according to the state-run news agency RIA Novosti. Ukraine said in its Saturday evening report that its forces had repelled 36 Russian attacks along the Pokrovsk front line the previous day, including in the area of Selydove, while several battles were still ongoing. A Russian glide bomb killed one person and injured three in Kostiantynivka near the front line in Donetsk region, the regional governor said. Russian shelling killed two people in a small town west of the Ukrainian-held southern city of Kherson. Politics and diplomacy A string of Russian attacks that killed and injured civilians in Ukraine in recent days has prompted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to issue a new call to Kyiv’s allies to intensify political pressure on Moscow. Finance ministers of the Group of Seven nations have decided to step up efforts to prevent Russia from evading sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine amid reports that Russian financial institutions have developed a network of foreign subsidiaries to facilitate the trade of sanctioned goods. The deployment of North Korean troops to help Russia in its war against Ukraine is unlikely to have a significant effect on the fighting on the ground but could affect security interests in Asia, Europe and elsewhere, said Pascal Dayez-Burgeon, a North Korea expert and former French diplomat in Seoul. Adblock test (Why?)

Japan’s ruling party likely to lose parliamentary majority in snap election

Japan’s ruling party likely to lose parliamentary majority in snap election

While voters are weighing the ruling party’s funding scandals and the stagnant economy, they are also sceptical about the opposition’s ability and experience. Japan is voting in its tightest election in years, with new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) facing potentially their worst result since 2009 over a funding scandal and inflation. The LDP and its longtime partner Komeito are likely to lose their comfortable majority in the lower house of parliament in Sunday’s election, opinion polls suggest. A record 314 women among a total of 1,344 candidates are running for office. Polls close at 8pm (11:00 GMT), with early results expected within hours. Ishiba, 67, took office on October 1, replacing his predecessor Fumio Kishida who resigned after an outcry over slush fund practices among LDP legislators. Ishiba immediately announced a snap election in hopes of shoring up more support. Ishiba gestures during a campaign event in Tokyo [Manami Yamada/Reuters] But the LDP is facing potentially its worst result since 2009 – possibly leading Japan into political uncertainty, though a change of government was unexpected. Ishiba has set a goal of retaining 233 seats for the ruling coalition between the LDP and its Buddhist-backed junior partner Komeito, a majority in the 465-member lower house, the more powerful of Japan’s two-chamber parliament. In his final campaign speeches on Saturday, Ishiba apologised for his party’s mishandling of funds and pledged “to restart as an equal, fair, humble and honest party”. He said only the LDP’s ruling coalition can run Japan with its experience and dependable policies. But voters in the world’s fourth-largest economy have been rankled by rising prices and the fallout from a party slush fund scandal that helped sink previous premier Fumio Kishida. “I made my decision first and foremost by looking at their economic policies and measures to ease inflation,” Tokyo voter Yoshihiro Uchida, 48, told AFP on Sunday. “I voted for people who are likely to make our lives better.” The 101-year-old Utako Kanayama casts her ballot at a polling station in Tokyo [Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters] Japan’s biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), meanwhile, is expected to make significant gains. Its centrist leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, said Sunday’s election is a rare chance for a change of government. Local media speculated that Ishiba could potentially even resign immediately to take responsibility, becoming Japan’s shortest-serving prime minister in the post-war period. The current record is held by Naruhiko Higashikuni who served for 54 days – four days more than British leader Liz Truss in 2022 – just after Japan’s 1945 defeat in World War II. “The LDP’s politics is all about quickly implementing policies for those who give them loads of cash,” 67-year-old Noda told his supporters on Saturday. “But those in vulnerable positions… have been ignored,” he added, accusing the government of offering insufficient support for survivors of an earthquake in central Japan. A woman accompanying her children in Halloween costume casts her ballot [Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters] Analysts suggest Ishiba could fall short of reaching his target, though his LDP was expected to remain the top party in Japan’s parliament as voters are sceptical about the opposition’s ability and experience. Ishiba’s party is also being tested to break the legacy of the late Premier Shinzo Abe. Abe’s policies focused on security, trade and industry but largely ignored equality and diversity, and his nearly eight-year tenure led to the corruption, experts say. “The public’s criticisms against the slush funds scandal has intensified, and it won’t go away easily,” said Izuru Makihara, a University of Tokyo professor of politics and public policy. “There is a growing sense of fairness and people are rejecting privileges for politicians.” Adblock test (Why?)

US election: 9 days left – What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

US election: 9 days left – What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

With nine days left to go until Election Day in the United States, the two top contenders for the White House – Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump – continue to scramble for votes in battleground states as polls suggest a tight race. On Saturday, Trump made a bold play for Arab-American and Muslim voters in Michigan, a swing state with nearly 400,000 voters of Arab background. Michigan voted for Biden in 2020, but anger over Israel’s genocide in Gaza and the war on Lebanon could affect the Democratic turnout for Harris. Michigan is one of the seven competitive US states likely to decide the winner. It is part of the “Blue Wall” that is considered Democrats’ best chance of electing Harris, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris also campaigned in Michigan on Saturday, warning that Trump would exercise “unchecked and extreme power” if he returns to the White House. What are the latest updates from the polls? A poll released by the Emerson College Polling on Saturday has Harris and Trump tied at 49 percent each. The survey, conducted on October 23-24, suggested a tighter race than a week earlier, which showed Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 48 percent. It is also the first time since August in Emerson’s weekly polling that Harris is not in the lead. “Male voters are breaking for Trump by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, a larger margin than in 2020, while women break for Harris by 10 points, 54 percent to 44 percent, underperforming Biden’s support in 2020,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. The latest survey also found that regardless of who they will vote for, 50 percent of American voters think Trump will win the election while 49 percent think so for Harris. The polling also listed the top issues for voters are the economy at 45 percent, followed by immigration (14 percent), threats to democracy (14 percent), abortion access (7 percent), healthcare (6 percent), and crime (4 percent). Meanwhile, the latest FiveThirtyEight’s daily average showed Harris leading in the national polls, 47.9 to Trump’s 46.6. According to the same polling, Harris’s unfavourable rating edged up to 47.8 percent, while her favourable rating was at 46.4 percent. Trump’s unfavourable rating was at 52.1 percent while his favourable rating was at 43.4 percent. What was Kamala Harris up to on Saturday? Harris was in Michigan, where former First Lady Michelle Obama fired up the crowd of Democratic supporters by drawing distinctions between Harris and Trump on personal character and qualifications, saying there was a double standard in how the two were being treated. Obama warned that another term under Trump would result in further rollbacks to abortion rights. She said Trump’s promise to rescind the Affordable Care Act passed during her husband’s presidency would affect the “entirety of women’s health, all of it”. Michelle Obama speaks at a campaign rally for Harris in Kalamazoo, Michigan, October 26, 2024 [Jacquelyn Martin/AP] Harris was several minutes into an upbeat address when she was interrupted by a demonstrator who repeatedly yelled, “No more Gaza war.” After Harris’s supporters shouted down the interruption, she responded, “On the topic of Gaza, we must end that war”, then picked up where she left off, asking voters to “turn the page on the fear and the divisiveness”. What was Donald Trump up to on Saturday? Also campaigning in Michigan, Trump met a group of Muslim preachers, arguing that he deserved the support of Muslim voters because he would end conflicts and bring peace to the Middle East. Trump fully backs Israel and has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” in dealing with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Even so, Trump appears to be gaining support from some Muslim Americans upset with President Joe Biden’s and Harris’s policy in Gaza, and despite Trump banning immigration from some Muslim-majority countries as president. Imam Belal Alzuhairi of the Islamic Center of Detroit joined Trump on stage in Novi, saying, “We ask Muslims to stand with President Trump because he promises peace.” During the same appearance, however, Trump also denigrated Detroit while trying to appeal to the suburban votes. “I think Detroit and some of our areas make us a developing nation,” he said, adding that people want him to say Detroit is “great”, but he thinks it “needs help”. What’s next for the Harris and Trump campaigns? According to her campaign, Harris is spending all of Sunday in Philadelphia, crisscrossing the city in a series of neighbourhood events to turn out voters. Turnout in Philadelphia could be the determining factor in whether Harris can carry the critical state of Pennsylvania, which carries 19 electoral votes. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer newspaper, Harris’s full-day tour will focus on predominantly Black and Latino neighbourhoods of the Democrat-leaning city. Harris is scheduled to attend services on Sunday morning and deliver remarks at a Black church in West Philadelphia. She will also visit a barbershop in West Philadelphia for a conversation with young Black men and community leaders. Meanwhile, Trump will take the stage at one of the country’s most iconic venues, hosting a hometown rally at New York City’s Madison Square Garden to deliver his campaign’s closing message against Harris. Trump was born and raised in Queens in New York City. He also built his real estate career in the city. While some Democrats and TV pundits have questioned Trump’s decision to hold what they dismiss as vanity events, the rally in the Democrat-leaning New York guarantees Trump what he most craves: the spotlight, wall-to-wall coverage and a national audience. “It’s the New York, but it’s also, you know, it’s MSG, it’s Madison Square Garden,” Trump said during a recent radio interview. “Guys like you and I, that means a lot, those words. Madison Square Garden, right? Don’t you think so? … It’s a very big stop.” Trump will be joined at the rally by supporters including