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Fox News Voter Analysis: How Trump regained the White House

Fox News Voter Analysis: How Trump regained the White House

After a bitterly contested presidential campaign full of unprecedented twists and turns, voters returned Donald Trump to the White House after four years out of power. In an election where voters across the country wanted change, they chose Trump’s outsider appeal over Kamala Harris’ promise to “turn the page” on the Trump era. Trump’s victory was powered by his strength on the economy and immigration – two of voters’ top concerns. He was seen as a stronger leader than Harris in a time of turmoil, and voters remembered his presidency more fondly than their evaluations of the current administration. Trump ran up the score with his base while narrowing traditional Democratic advantages among Black, Hispanic, and young voters. Harris came close in her bid to become the first woman elected to the presidency but was unable to make enough gains in the ideological middle of the electorate to offset defections among groups that traditionally vote Democratic. CHECK OUT THE LATEST FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS IN THE 2024 ELECTION Preliminary data from the Fox News Voter Analysis, a survey of more than 110,000 voters nationwide, highlights the campaign’s key dynamics. Voters headed to the polls believing the country was on the wrong track (70%, up from 60% who felt that way four years ago) and seeking something different: most wanted a change in how the country is run, with roughly a quarter seeking complete and total upheaval. Those seeking complete change in the country’s affairs voted for the former president by a wide margin. Voters’ frustrations with Joe Biden’s administration were a drag on Harris’ candidacy, as nearly 6 in 10 disapproved of the job Biden has done. Voters had rosier recollections of Trump’s time in office, with half approving of the job he did as president. Four years ago, 47% approved of the job Trump had done. This desire for change was coupled with split views on the role of government. Slightly more than half felt the government should be doing more to solve the country’s problems, a modest decline from 2020 (57%). Some 45% felt the government was doing too many things better left to the private sector. The nation’s deep divides – by gender, education, and area of residence – were on vivid display. Men backed Trump by 10 points, while women went for Harris by 8 points. The 18-point gender gap was a touch wider than 2020 (17 points). In 2020, Trump won men by 5 points and Biden won women by 12. This divide was readily apparent in views of societal gains for women. Some 4 in 10 Trump supporters (43%) were concerned that society’s focus on gains for women had come at the expense of men; just 14% of Harris felt that way. Overall, 29% were concerned. Voters without a college degree went for Trump by 12 points; college-educated voters went for Harris by 15 points. Harris’ showing among college-educated voters was 1 point worse than Biden’s 2020 showing among college-educated voters, while Trump bettered his 2020 numbers among noncollege voters by 4 points. Trump had a particular advantage among White voters without a degree (+29 points), thanks in large part to his 38-point edge among noncollege White men. Harris won college-educated Whites by 8 points and college-educated White women by 16 points – both in the ballpark of Biden’s 2020 margins (+7 points and +21 points, respectively). Overall, White voters backed Trump by 12 points, exactly the same as his 12-point advantage in 2020. Trump ran up the score in rural areas (+26 points, up from a 22-point edge in 2020), while Harris ran slightly behind Biden’s 2020 numbers in urban areas (+28 points, compared to Biden +33). Suburban voters backed Harris by 6 points, less than Biden’s 10-point margin four years ago. Suburban women, a major source of strength for Biden (+19 points), went heavily for Harris (+16 points) – but she lost ground among suburban men (Trump +5 points, compared to +1 for Biden). While the election was, in part, about the deep divides in American society, Trump’s success in attracting traditional Democratic constituencies was also a defining feature. He improved on his 2020 numbers among Hispanics (41%, +6 points), Black voters (15%, +7 points from 2020), and young voters (46%, +10 points). FOX NEWS PROJECTS DONALD TRUMP DEFEATS KAMALA HARRIS TO BECOME 47TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES These rightward shifts were particularly notable among Hispanic men (+8 points), Black men (+12 points from 2020), and men under 30 (+14 points). Seniors, who backed Trump by 3 points in 2020, were once again in the former president’s column. Trump won Catholics by 9 points and Protestants by 22 points, while Harris held the edge among Jewish voters (+34 points), Muslims (+32 points), and the religiously unaffiliated (+40 points). White Catholics favored Trump by 20 points, while White evangelical Christians broke for Trump by a massive 59-point margin. Voters similarly divided along lines of religious attendance: Trump won those who regularly attend services (of any denomination) by 22 points; Harris won those who infrequently or never attend by 13 points. The vice president won union households (+12 points, down from Biden’s 14-point edge in 2020). As he did in 2020, Trump had an advantage among military households (+13 points) and gun owner households (+26 points). Overall, Trump’s strongest support came from White evangelicals, rural voters, Whites without a college degree, conservatives, and men. Harris’ best groups included college-educated women, Black voters, liberals, and urban voters. That each candidate successfully appealed to their base is hardly surprising in a hyper-partisan political environment. Most Democrats (95%) backed Harris; slightly fewer Republicans (92%) backed Trump. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans (73%) considered themselves part of the MAGA movement. And while the Harris campaign touted endorsements from prominent Republicans, she was unable to convince enough non-MAGA Republicans to cross the aisle. Just 7% of voters self-identified as true independents, meaning they do not lean toward one party or another. Harris had a 7-point advantage with this

Republican projected to take key Michigan open House seat held by Slotkin

Republican projected to take key Michigan open House seat held by Slotkin

Former Republican State Sen. Tom Barrett is projected to defeat Democratic former state Sen. Curtis Hertel in the race for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, according to a call by The Associated Press. The two candidates were vying to replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., who gave up the House seat to pursue Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the 2024 cycle. Barrett, a former Army helicopter pilot who served in the state legislature for eight years, twice pursued the critical Michigan seat, having lost to Slotkin by five points during the 2022 race.  DEM HOPING TO REPLACE SLOTKIN SUPPORTS LETTING LOCAL GOVERNMENTS CALL THE SHOTS ON ICE DEPORTATIONS Hertel was making his first run for the U.S. House after leaving the State Senate in 2022 due to term limits. MICHIGAN REPUBLICANS CONTINUE TO SPAR WITH DEMS OVER DEAL WITH CHINESE EV COMPANY IN KEY HOUSE RACE Hertel spent much of the race outspending Barrett, according to an October Detroit News report, which noted at the time that Hertel had raised $4.2 million to Barrett’s $2.8 million.  Hertel was also the beneficiary of millions in ad spending by outside groups, including television, digital media and mail advertisements, the report noted. The race was seen as one of the most competitive in the country leading up to election day. Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

Trump says life was spared to ‘restore America to greatness’ during victory speech

Trump says life was spared to ‘restore America to greatness’ during victory speech

Projected President-elect Donald Trump said “God spared [his] life for a reason” during his victory speech at Trump Headquarters early Wednesday morning. Trump, who has been the target of two assassination attempts since July, shared his appreciation for a second presidency during his 25-minute speech from West Palm Beach, Florida. “Many people have told me that God spared my life for a reason, and that reason was to save our country and to restore America to greatness,” Trump said. “And now we are going to fulfill that mission together.” He continued: “The task before us will not be easy, but I will bring every ounce of energy, spirit, and fighting that I have in my soul to the job that you’ve entrusted to me.”  FOX NEWS PROJECTS DONALD TRUMP DEFEATS KAMALA HARRIS TO BECOME 47TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES The first assassination attempt on Trump’s life took place at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13. A 20-year-old gunman fired off approximately eight shots in Trump’s direction, grazing the 45th president’s ear and leaving firefighter Corey Comperatore dead. Two other men attending the rally were also wounded. Trump returned to Butler on Oct. 5 and began his rally where it ended three months prior by addressing immigration and border security. FOX NEWS PROJECTS TRUMP VICTORY OVER HARRIS IN PENNSYLVANIA The second attempt on Trump’s life came while he was playing golf at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Sept. 15.  He was rushed off the course after Secret Service agents noticed a man in the bushes pointing the muzzle of an AK-47 through a chain-link fence one hole ahead of where Trump was playing. Trump ended up securing the key battleground state of Pennsylvania on Tuesday in a major victory that propelled him over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the 2024 presidential election. Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

Trump claims victory, Harris skips party: The biggest surprises of election night

Trump claims victory, Harris skips party: The biggest surprises of election night

The 2024 presidential election cycle came to a close in the early morning hours on Wednesday, capping off a wild campaign cycle with President-elect Donald Trump is projected to win the presidency and go back to the White House on Jan. 20.  Following speculation that the election results could drag out days, Fox News Decision Desk is projecting a Trump victory after notching key wins in a handful of battleground states.  Fox News Digital compiled the biggest election surprises on Tuesday evening into Wednesday, including Harris calling it a night without addressing supporters, and Florida Republicans celebrating the failure of an abortion amendment.  TRUMP VOWS TO LEAD ‘GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA’ IN VICTORY SPEECH: ‘FIX EVERYTHING’ Trump became the projected winner of the 2024 election cycle early Wednesday morning, after securing key battleground states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  He vowed to lead the “golden age of America” in his victory speech in Florida.  “Every citizen, I will fight for you, for your family and your future. Every single day, I will be fighting for you. And with every breath in my body, I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will truly be the golden age of America. That’s what we have to have. This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again,” Trump said.  The president-elect called his campaign the “greatest political movement of all time” while vowing to “fix everything about our country.”  “There’s never been anything like this in this country, and maybe beyond. And now it’s going to reach a new level of importance because we’re going to help our country heal,” he said.  “We’re going to help our country here. We have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly. We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country and we’ve made history for a reason tonight. And the reason is going to be just that. We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible,” he added to cheers from the crowd.  Vice President Kamala Harris and her campaign called it an early night on Tuesday. The Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon encouraged supporters to go home and “get some sleep” ahead of 11 p.m. on Tuesday, which was followed by Harris skipping an address to her supporters.  HARRIS WILL NOT SPEAK FROM HOWARD UNIVERSITY ON ELECTION NIGHT AS PLANNED “Those of you who were around in 2020 know this well: It takes time for all the votes to be counted – and all the votes will be counted,” O’Malley Dillon wrote in a dismal note to Democrats Tuesday evening. “That’s how our system works. What we do know is this race is not going to come into focus until the early morning hours. We’ll continue to keep you all updated as we get more information. This is what we’ve been built for, so let’s finish up what we have in front of us tonight, get some sleep, and get ready to close out strong tomorrow.” Harris held the watch party at her alma mater, Howard University, where supporters flocked to the campus before results began ticking towards a Trump victory. The campaign soon reported that Harris would not speak to supporters or the nation the night of the election, and would instead deliver remarks on Wednesday.  The campaign’s co-chair, Cedric Richmond, instead delivered brief remarks.  “We still have votes to count, we still have states that have not been called yet We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken. So you won’t hear from the vice president tonight. But you will hear from her tomorrow,” Richmond said, ahead of Trump’s eventual victory.  President Biden notably did not join the Harris watch party at Howard University on Tuesday, instead staying at the White House and congratulating down-ballot Democrats who came out of their races victorious. Biden kicked off the 2024 campaign cycle running for re-election, but dropped out of the race in July as concerns mounted over his mental acuity and age.  Republicans are on track to take control of the Senate, with Ohio Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno declaring Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is “fired.”  “Chuck Schumer: Thanks for the help in the primary, but you’re fired, buddy,” Moreno told supporters in his victory speech. “With Donald Trump and J.D. Vance in the White House, we’re gonna have a new agenda. We’re gonna be pro-immigration not pro-invasion. We’re gonna be an energy-dominant nation.” ‘TIRELESS CAMPAIGN’: REACTIONS POUR IN AFTER GOP CHALLENGER FLIPS CRUCIAL SENATE SEAT HELD BY LONGTIME DEM Fox News projects the GOP will take control of the Senate, as ​the party will hold at least 51 seats, enough for an outright majority. Nebraska was the state to officially tip the scales – following Moreno flipping longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s seat in Ohio – where Republican incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer is projected to defeat independent challenger Dan Osborn. Former President Donald Trump is projected to win a bevy of battleground states, including Georgia, North Carolina and the arguably top battleground of the 2024 cycle, Pennsylvania.  Speculation mounted in the weeks leading up to Election Day that the vote count could drag out for days in a handful of states, including Pennsylvania, where 2020’s vote took four days to tally. Despite delayed polling hours in some Pennsylvania and Georgia jurisdictions, the states managed to tally votes overnight Tuesday, handing Trump victories in key battlegrounds. FOX NEWS PROJECTS TRUMP VICTORY OVER HARRIS IN PENNSYLVANIA Both the Trump and Harris campaigns placed heightened emphasis on campaigning in the Keystone State, as well as in Georgia and Wisconsin, repeatedly holding rallies and campaign events to build support. Despite polls showing Trump and Harris were neck and neck in polls ahead of the election, Trump ended the cycle victorious in the battlegrounds, which launched him

Liberals fume on social media as Fox News projects Trump winning presidency: ‘What is f—ing happening’

Liberals fume on social media as Fox News projects Trump winning presidency: ‘What is f—ing happening’

Reactions poured in on social media after former President Trump was projected by Fox News Decision Desk to win the presidency, with many Trump opponents lamenting his electoral college votes and blasting his voters.   “It’s really depressing to see how many people voted for the felon, rapist, fraudster, who lies constantly,” Democrat social media influencer Harry Sisson posted on X. “Many Americans failed their fellow Americans tonight.” “American decency was destroyed tonight. We used to be a nation that expected our representatives to be mature, professional, experienced leaders who made us proud. Now, we’re a nation that permits someone like Trump, who bullies and mocks, to thrive.” “dude is a barely coherent convicted sex predator whose only platform is wanting to do more crimes, what is f—ing happening,” Writer and Director Zack Bornstein posted on X.  ELON MUSK REVEALS HIS POLITICAL PAC’S FUTURE AMID TIGHT PRESIDENTIAL RACE “I can’t help but wonder if the American people have given up on democracy,” Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart said on air as Trump was inching closer to victory. “Fascism has come to America, and as predicted, it is wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross,” Lincoln Project co-founder Steve Schmidt posted on X.  ‘TIRELESS CAMPAIGN’: REACTIONS POUR IN AFTER GOP CHALLENGER FLIPS CRUCIAL SENATE SEAT HELD BY LONGTIME DEM “America, you have failed us all,” Democrat influencer Dean Withers posted on X.  “Big win for post-liberal politics and economics,” The Atlantic’s David Frum posted on X. “Also for measles, mumps, polio, and tooth decay.” The Fox News Decision Desk has called the presidential race for Trump. Trump had 277 Electoral College votes as of 3 AM ET. 

Trump White House victory called ‘the greatest political comeback in American history’

Trump White House victory called ‘the greatest political comeback in American history’

From political pariah to the presidency. Four years after Americans booted then-President Trump from the White House and he left Washington in political disgrace two months later, after trying to overturn his election loss, they are sending him back to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.  “It’s a political victory that our country has never seen before,” Trump said in his celebration speech early Wednesday morning, as he pointed to his convincing electoral and popular vote victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. And his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, called Trump’s victory “the greatest political comeback in American history.” CLICK HERE FOR FOX NEWS 2024 ELECTION UPDATES  Trump, in his victory address, touted that his political movement was one that “nobody’s ever seen before… this was the greatest political movement of all time.” For an undisciplined candidate known for his hyperbole, Tuesday’s election results appeared to prove Trump right. “This is a historic political realignment,” seasoned Republican strategist Ryan Williams said.  TRUMP DEFEATS HARRIS TO WIN BACK THE WHITE HOUSE Williams argued that Trump “basically threw out the coalition that Republicans had put together for the last several decades and reached out and doubled down on voting blocks that he thought he could make a connection with.” “He just expanded the party in a way that no other nominee has been able to do before. And I think that’s why the polling missed this, because he so radically changed the composition of the electorate,” Williams highlighted. For Trump, the 2024 campaign was a grueling two-year marathon. He announced his candidacy at his south Florida Mar-a-Lago club days after the 2022 midterm elections. And he launched his campaign amid criticism from many in his party that he was partially responsible for the GOP’s lackluster performance in the midterm elections. But after a slow start, the former president eventually easily dispatched a field of GOP primary opponents – which last year briefly expanded to over a dozen contenders – as he ran the table earlier this year in the Republican presidential primaries. Trump, who was indicted in four different criminal cases, saw his support surge and his fundraising soar in the late spring of this year, after he made history as the first former or current president convicted of felonies. A month later, President Biden suffered a major setback after a disastrous late June debate performance against Trump reignited longstanding questions over whether the 81-year-old president was physically and mentally up for another four grueling years in the White House – and sparked calls from within his own party for him to step down. Trump’s polling advantage over Biden widened, and the former president was further politically boosted after surviving an assassination attempt on his life at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, two days before the start of the Republican National Convention in July. But the race was instantly turned upside down days later, as Biden ended his re-election bid and endorsed his vice president. Democrats quickly coalesced around Harris, and her fundraising surged as her poll numbers soared. The Harris honeymoon continued through the late August Democratic National Convention, and into September, when most pundits declared her the winner of the one and only presidential debate between her and Trump.  But as the calendar moved from September into October, Trump appeared to regain his footing, and public opinion surveys indicated the former president gaining momentum. Longtime GOP strategist David Kochel noted that we’re “still in a country where you have a 70% wrong track. The voters wanted to change who was in the White House.” Kochel, a veteran of numerous Republican presidential campaigns, noted that while Harris “breathed some life into the campaign, some enthusiasm, the fundamentals didn’t change. People are unhappy with the economy. They think the country’s going in the wrong direction. And they wanted to make a change. And it turns out Trump won the change argument.” “And he also ran a very effective swing state campaign with effective advertising that hurt her,” Kochel added. Williams also applauded the Trump campaign, saying that they “had a strategy and stuck with it. They just basically said we’re going with men… they doubled down on men.. they had a consistent strategy for it, and it worked.” And Williams argued that Harris “basically took the Hillary Clinton playbook from 2016, xeroxed it, and made it worse.” And both strategists highlighted that Trump was able to overcome his many misstatements and controversial comments. “We pay so much attention to the crazy things Trump says. All that stuff that people find inappropriate. That stuff doesn’t matter,” Kochel argued. “He had a better strategy and an environment that played to his favor.” And Williams spotlighted that Trump “has a way of understanding the electorate and connecting with people in a way that no other politician does. He just speaks off the cuff in his own way, and despite the fact that he tells a lot of mistruths, he’s viewed as being genuine because he’s not a polished politician.” Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

US election: The day after – What results say; what Harris, Trump are up to

US election: The day after – What results say; what Harris, Trump are up to

After months of campaigning in the United States, an election dropout, and assassination attempts, Americans have cast their ballots to decide who will take over the White House for the next four years. Election results have been called in 42 states and in Washington, DC, while several swing states still continue their vote count. Who is leading in the US election results so far? Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump is leading against his Democratic counterpart, Vice President Kamala Harris. But the margin between them in several swing states remains razor-thin. With 246 Electoral College votes projected in his favour so far, Trump is inching towards the 270-mark that a candidate needs to win. Harris is projected to have won 214 Electoral College votes so far and has more than 63 million votes (47.3 percent of the popular vote) overall. Trump, by contrast, has won more than 68 million votes (51.2 percent of the popular vote) so far. The Associated Press (AP) has called 25 states for Trump, including solidly Republican states and the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina. Among all the red states called, Texas has the highest number of Electoral seats at 40. While Trump also won in Nebraska, the state’s Electoral College has been split between him and Harris. Seventeen states have been called for Harris, including California where she previously served as attorney general, and New York. She is also projected to win the District of Columbia, which is not a state but has three Electoral College votes. California has 54 Electoral College votes, the highest of any state. What was Election Day like? Voting proceeded smoothly in most areas, though some states saw long lines. There were software glitches in Pennsylvania, protests against US funding of Israel’s war in New York, and bomb threats in Georgia. The FBI deemed the threats, which delayed voting in some counties, to be not credible and likely the work of Russian election interference. Several states, including Georgia and Arizona, took extra security measures to protect voting places. Arab, Muslim, and progressive voters said they faced a tough choice between two candidates both seen as unsympathetic to Palestine. Even across the world, from Gaza to Iran, people watched the election intently. In Thulasendrapuram in southern India – a tiny village where Harris’s grandfather was born – residents gathered to pray for the Democratic candidate to become the first US leader with South Asian roots. What was Kamala Harris up to on Election Day? Both candidates spent Election Day urging their supporters to get in line, stay in line, and cast their ballots. Harris spent part of the day calling radio stations to encourage her supporters to vote. “We’ve got to get it done. Today is voting day, and people need to get out and be active,” CNN quoted Harris as telling one radio station in Georgia. She also visited the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, DC, where she held phone banks with volunteers. Harris talks on the phone at the DNC headquarters on Election Day [Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters] What was Donald Trump up to on Election Day? Trump addressed the media after casting his ballot in Palm Beach, Florida, saying he feels “very confident” about his election odds. “It looks like Republicans have shown up in force,” Trump said. “We’ll see how it turns out”. He added, “I hear we’re doing very well.” Florida also voted on six constitutional amendments, including measures to legalise marijuana and protect abortion rights. When first asked how he voted on the state’s abortion measure, Trump deflected, saying he had done “a great job bringing it back to the states”. This referenced his appointment of three conservative Supreme Court justices who in 2022 helped overturn Roe v Wade – which made abortion a right nationally. When pressed again, he snapped, telling the reporter to “stop talking about that”. It is now officially ELECTION DAY! This will be the most important day in American History. Voter enthusiasm is THROUGH THE ROOF because people want to Make America Great Again. That means lines are going to be long! I need you to deliver your vote no matter how long it takes.… — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 5, 2024 His running mate JD Vance also voted in Cincinnati, Ohio, the same morning. “Look, I feel good. You never know until you know, but I feel good about this race,” Vance said after he and his wife cast their ballots. Vance said he would depart for Palm Beach, Florida, later in the day to be with Donald Trump as results come in. What’s next in the election? Eight states, including five battleground areas are yet to be called by AP while most official results are yet to be determined. But while there are as many as 21 routes for Trump to win the presidency, Harris’s pathways have dwindled significantly – down to just three. And all those remaining tracks require Harris to win one state: Pennsylvania, with its 19 Electoral College votes. As of early Wednesday morning, she was narrowly trailing Trump in the state. Adblock test (Why?)

Afghan opium cultivation bouncing back amid Taliban clampdown

Afghan opium cultivation bouncing back amid Taliban clampdown

Poppy planting remains far below pre-ban levels, United Nations reports, despite rise of 19 percent year on year. Afghanistan’s opium poppy cultivation grew in 2024 despite a Taliban-imposed ban, according to a United Nations report. Cultivation increased by an estimated 19 percent this year, the report published on Wednesday by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said. Despite the increase, the cultivation of opium poppies – the source of the raw material for much of the world’s heroin – remains well below the levels reached before the Taliban clampdown in 2022. This year’s cultivation area amounted to just 12,800 hectares (31,629 acres), a sharp drop from the 232,000 hectares (573,284 acres) cultivated before the prohibition. The ban on narcotic cultivation in April 2022 saw a 95 percent drop in opium farming by 2023, according to the UNODC. “This is important further evidence that opium cultivation has indeed been reduced, and this will be welcomed by Afghanistan’s neighbours, the region and the world,” said Roza Otunbayeva, special representative of the secretary-general and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. The report also notes that cultivation has moved away from its traditional southwest heartland to the northeastern provinces, where 59 percent of cultivation occurred in 2024. Cultivation surged by 381 percent in these provinces over 2023, particularly in Badakhshan, which accounted for most of the region’s opium production. Sustainable The report also notes that the ban has led to a spike in opium prices, meaning that poppy cultivation remains an enticing prospect for struggling Afghans. Prices have stabilised at about $730 per kg, up from pre-ban averages of about $100, and significantly higher than the “20-year peak” of $408 recorded in August 2023. Otunbayeva stressed that rural communities deprived of the key income source that opium poppies represented must be supported. “They desperately need international support if we want this transition to be sustainable,” she said. Many farmers in Afghanistan, one of the poorest countries in the world, have been hit hard financially by the ban and have not been able to reap the same profit from alternative crops. Even legal crops are only a short-term solution, according to the International Crisis Group, which says a focus is needed on job creation in non-farm industries. In May, clashes between farmers and brigades sent to destroy their poppy fields resulted in several deaths in Badakhshan, a mountainous area that includes a stretch of the Hindu Kush and Afghanistan’s relatively short border with China. “With opium cultivation remaining at a low level in Afghanistan, we have the opportunity and responsibility to support Afghan farmers to develop sustainable sources of income free from illicit markets,” said UNODC Director Ghada Waly. Adblock test (Why?)