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Fox News Power Rankings: Voter outreach, ballot efficiency and a little Housekeeping

Fox News Power Rankings: Voter outreach, ballot efficiency and a little Housekeeping

Election night is two weeks away. As Vice President Harris and former President Trump dash to the finish line, this week’s forecast looks at their outreach efforts and the latest evidence of a smaller divide between national and state polling.  Plus, rankings changes in six competitive House districts. Last week’s Power Rankings showed that both parties’ coalitions have changed meaningfully since 2020. For Democrats, the chief concern is that Harris still has fewer Black voters in her corner than President Biden. To help fix that problem, the campaign dispatched its strongest surrogate, former President Obama, to Arizona and Nevada, and Harris spent an hour with Charlamagne Tha God to talk about policy, race, and religion. The Vice President also went head-to-head with Fox News’ Bret Baier, part of an effort by her campaign to frame the candidate as tough and pragmatic. It was Harris’ highest-profile interview yet, but it will take another week before the effects show up in polls. Meanwhile, Trump’s coalition has fewer women than in the last election, so the former President participated in a town hall with Fox News’ Harris Faulkner and an all-female audience. Trump also continues to search for young and working-class voters. His appearance at a local McDonald’s in Pennsylvania produced some compelling imagery and was designed to paint Trump as an energetic and likable candidate. FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: HARRIS LOSES HER LEAD AND A NEW ELECTORATE EMERGES Right-wing voters with reservations about Trump could also make the difference on election night.  That is why Harris spent the beginning of the week with Republican former congresswoman Liz Cheney, who urged conservatives to vote for the Democratic ticket this year. It also explains why there are rumblings about Nikki Haley joining Trump on the campaign trail. Two polls of the national popular vote released last week show a uniquely tight race. Suffolk has Harris one point ahead of Trump at 50% to 49%; the Fox News Poll has Trump up by two, with the former president at 50% and Harris at 48%. Results like that should make this Trump’s race to lose.  In 2020, Biden won the national vote by 4.5 points (51%-47%). That translated to very thin margins of victory in the battleground states. The president won Georgia, for example, by 0.2 points, and his largest victory in any battleground was by 2.8 points in Michigan. Close national polls should therefore put Trump in the lead in the battlegrounds. But the statewide polls are close too. A new set of polls show Harris ahead by 2-4 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia, a tied race in Nevada, and Trump ahead by 3 in Arizona and North Carolina (Washington Post/Schar). The Power Rankings call all those states toss-ups. Last week, the same Fox poll that put Trump ahead by two points nationally had Harris up six points among voters who live in the battleground states (52%-46%, with a 6.5-point subgroup margin of error). Trump’s advantage primarily came from a larger share in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020 (64-35%) than Harris had in counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58-39%). A TRUMP MYSTERY MAKES ELECTION OUTCOME EVEN MURKIER The results suggest that Trump could be banking “inefficient vote.” In other words, while the former president is performing better nationally than he was four years ago, the gains are concentrated in places he is already winning, like Florida, or rural counties. While Harris may have lost some ground in safe Democratic states like New York, she remains competitive in the battlegrounds that decide the presidential election. Other polls have raised the same question, but the most compelling evidence comes from the midterms. Republicans received about 3 million more votes than Democrats in the national House vote (Cook), but eked out a balance of power win, with 222 seats to Democrats’ 213. Put another way, the GOP banked a lot of votes in areas where it didn’t need them, and just enough in the battleground House races that would give them victory (a problem that has plagued the Democrats in the national vote for years). The polls are all within the margin of error, and this is just one theory about the direction of the race. But on election night, a Trump blowout in Florida or a narrower spread in Virginia may not mean the race is over. The House is still a toss-up, with 208 seats in the Republican columns, 205 for the Democrats, and 22 districts that could go either way. In today’s forecast, six races move to new categories: First, New York’s 17th district, in the Hudson Valley, is home to one of the most competitive races on the map. Incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Lawler has a strong bipartisan brand in a centrist district. While Democratic challenger and former Rep. Mondaire Jones has tried to head in the same direction, he’s still dogged by his previous support for defunding the police and a spat with the Working Families Party (Jones will not appear on the ballot under that party’s name, though the party is now telling voters to support him anyway). This race moves from Toss Up to Lean R. New York’s 1st district, home to both the Hamptons and rural farmland on Long Island, remains a competitive race between Republican Rep. Nick LaLota and the Democrat, former CNN anchor John Avlon. But the majority of this district’s voters backed Trump in 2020 and 2016, and Avlon has faced questions over the extent of his residency in the district. The race moves from Lean R to Likely R. In the battleground Rust Belt states, a pair of districts held by pro-Trump Republicans have become even more competitive. First, Wisconsin’s 3rd district flipped to Rep. Derrick Van Orden in the midterms by a tight margin. The incumbent’s presence at the U.S. Capitol during the January 6 riots is a theme in his opponent’s ads. This race moves from Likely R to Lean R. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s 10th

Anonymous GOP senator concerned about Grassley, 91, reclaiming key judiciary committee chair: report

Anonymous GOP senator concerned about Grassley, 91, reclaiming key judiciary committee chair: report

An anonymous Republican senator has reportedly expressed concern about 91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassely, R-Iowa, reclaiming his position as chair of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee should the GOP take control of the upper chamber. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins in November, the next Senate Judiciary Committee Chair could oversee several Supreme Court nominations and other judicial picks. The unnamed GOP senator, who sits on the Senate Judiciary Committee, spoke to Punchbowl News on condition of anonymity, questioning Grassley’s ability to strongly combat against the committee’s highest ranking Democrat, Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, as well as a White House led by Harris.  “Chuck is extremely sharp. A lot of it is just his disposition — he’s not a knife fighter. He’s just too genteel for that,” the senator said. “I’ve watched Durbin operate, and he is good at his job. He will not hesitate.” TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT: GRASSLEY DEMANDS SECRET SERVICE ANSWER EXPLOSIVE CLAIMS IN BODYCAM FOOTAGE Though several senators and aides reportedly doubt Grassley’s ability as a “fighter” to take on likely attacks on future Trump Supreme Court nominations, Punchbowl News said their concern was not the same as what the Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., faced. She stepped down as the committee’s top Democrat in 2020.  Progressives shredded Feinstein’s handling of the nominations of Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and the senator also faced questions about her mental fitness.  Another GOP senator told Punchbowl News that Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito possibly could retire next year, and Democrats have worried about Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s health. “The stakes are going to be high,” that senator told Punchbowl News.  Those who defend Grassley note how the nonagenarian guided prior Trump Supreme Court nominations through their Senate confirmation hearings despite intense backlash from Democrats and other groups.  They also credit the eight-term senator for the current Supreme Court conservative majority, as Grassley and other GOP senators in 2016 decided to forgo the hearings needed to advance Merrick Garland’s nomination to the high court. That effort, however, was largely led by then-Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. “No one is better prepared to lead the Senate Judiciary Committee than Senator Grassley,” Clare Slattery, a spokesperson for Grassley, told Fox News Digital. “He has a proven track record of success, having confirmed an historic number of constitutionally-sound judges, and he continues to set the gold standard for congressional oversight and investigations.” “Simply put, nobody outworks Chuck Grassley,” she said. “Senator Grassley looks forward to continuing to deliver on his rock solid conservative record as Judiciary Chairman in the next Republican Senate Majority.” SQUAD MEMBER CALLS FOR ‘RADICALLY’ CHANGING THE SUPREME COURT: ‘SCOTUS REFORM IS ON THE BALLOT IN NOVEMBER’ “Even at age 91, Grassley runs circles around his colleagues,” Mike Davis, Grassley’s former chief counsel for nominations, told Punchbowl News. “It is wishful thinking if people think he’s not going to be the next Republican chair of Senate Judiciary. Trump will be very happy it’s Grassley because Grassley has proven he’s very effective for Trump.” “Would any other senator have been able to do what Grassley did?” Michael Zona, a former top Grassley aide, said to Punchbowl News. “Has anyone had more success in confirming judges than Grassley? Who else has demonstrated they won’t buckle under political pressure more than Grassley?” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., the current ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is second in seniority to Grassley, who right now is the highest ranking Republican on the Senate Budget Committee.  Graham, who some conservatives fear as a potential chair of the Judiciary Committee given his record of voting for Democrat judicial picks, told Punchbowl News on Monday he holds “all the confidence in the world in Sen. Grassley’s ability to chair the Senate Judiciary Committee.”

‘Conservative’ former Ohio Gov. Bob Taft to vote for Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown

‘Conservative’ former Ohio Gov. Bob Taft to vote for Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown

Former Ohio Gov. Bob Taft described himself as “a conservative” while declaring his plan to vote for incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in the Buckeye State’s 2024 U.S. Senate race. Taft, who served as governor from early 1999 through early 2007, is the great-grandson of the late President William Howard Taft, who, years after his presidency, went on to serve as chief justice of the Supreme Court, making history as the only person ever to serve in both of those prestigious positions. “I have always run for office under the banner of the Republican Party, am a conservative and usually vote a straight Republican ticket. Although still a Republican, I will be making an exception this year in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race by supporting Sherrod Brown,” Taft wrote in a piece posted by the Dayton Daily News. PRO-CRYPTO SUPER PAC BECOMES LARGEST SPENDER IN OHIO SENATE RACE “In doing so, I will be joining most voters who make judgments about candidates based not just on party affiliation but, often more importantly, on the candidate and his or her character, experience and expertise,” he continued. Taft noted that he does not agree with Brown on all policy issues, but believes “Ohioans very much need a highly effective, experienced advocate in the U.S. Senate – someone who is squarely focused on both Ohio’s and America’s needs. This is the kind of leader Sherrod Brown has been.” Brown, who has served in the Senate since 2007, is facing a challenge from Republican candidate Bernie Moreno.  VULNERABLE DEM SENATOR TIED TO ‘RADICAL GROUPS’ WORKING TO CLOSE MASSIVE POWER PLANT IN SWING STATE Brown acknowledged the endorsement on social media, noting, “Bob Taft is the only guy to beat me in an election. Despite our political differences, I’m grateful to have his support in this race.” Taft defeated Brown in the 1990 Ohio secretary of state contest. OHIO GOP SENATE CHALLENGER REACTS TO POLLS SHOWING DEAD HEAT IN CRITICAL SENATE RACE: ‘RADICAL LIBERAL’ Currently, Ohio’s other U.S. Senator, J.D. Vance, is former President Donald Trump’s 2024 running mate in the 2024 presidential contest.

GOP NY congressman accuses Dem of refusing to let him cosponsor contraception bill for political reasons

GOP NY congressman accuses Dem of refusing to let him cosponsor contraception bill for political reasons

A New York House Republican is accusing a Democrat colleague of refusing to let him cosponsor a pro-contraception bill, which is now leaving him open to attack ads by his election opponent.  Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y., took to X on Monday to share emails from his staff written in June to Rep. Kathy Manning, D-N.C., asking that he be added as a cosponsor to the Right to Contraception Act, a bill she introduced to establish protections for an individual’s right to access birth control and protect health care providers’ ability to provide contraception. Molinaro, a freshman House member, says his Democratic opponent in the hotly contested New York 19th District race, Josh Riley, is blasting him for not being a co-sponsor, despite his requests to co-sponsor the bill. ‘MISLEADING’ DEM CONTRACEPTION BILL FAILS KEY VOTE AS GOP SLAMS BROAD PROPOSAL “I was the first Republican to support the Right to Contraception Act. Shame on @KathyManningNC who DENIED my MANY requests to cosponsor just so @JoshRileyUE could spin more lies in his desperate campaign built on lies. #ANewLow,” Molinaro wrote. Molinaro’s staff emailed Manning on June 5 and on June 13 asking for him to be added as a cosponsor, per the screenshots.  Manning fired back and asked Molinaro if he would sign a discharge petition launched in June which would try to force a vote on her bill. The petition would force a vote on the bill if 218 House members sign on. “Hey Marc, does this mean you’ll sign the petition to bring my Right to Contraception Act up for a vote? Or do you not want the bill to make it to the House Floor?” Manning wrote.  The discharge petition was launched June 4, one day before the first email from Molinaro’s staff to Manning’s, per Axios. At the time, Molinaro expressed openness to signing the petition but has not since signed on, according to the publication.  “How disgusting and short-sighted. LAWS are made by welcoming Republican AND Democrat support,” Molinaro shot back. REP. MOLINARO: PRESIDENT CONTINUES TO IGNORE THIS NATIONAL SECURITY CRISIS Molinaro’s office directed Fox News Digital to his posts on X when seeking further comment. Manning’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In June, the Senate voted 51-39 against moving the legislation forward. The bill needed to garner 60 votes in order to move forward in the upper chamber. The bill’s language says it “sets out statutory protections for an individual’s right to access and a health care provider’s right to provide contraception and related information.”  Molinaro said Monday he supports a woman’s right to an abortion and opposes a national ban on abortion. “My position is this,” Molinaro said in a meeting with the Cortland Standard editorial board, the publication reports.   “I believe the decision to have an abortion should be the woman’s and her physician’s.” Riley has accused Molinaro of voting “13 times to restrict access to abortion.” “The 13 votes are a lie, just a lie. They were procedural votes,” Molinaro told the Cortland Standard. “I led the bipartisan commission to fund the expansion of access to women’s healthcare,” he said. Molinaro told the outlet that half the votes were bills where the language was inserted into bills on a different topic. The other half, he said, is to maintain the existing standard of access, which is that federal money does not fund abortions. Meanwhile, Molinaro became one of the first GOP members of Congress to support the Access to Family Building Act. Democrats introduced the legislation defending in vitro fertilization treatment and holding frozen embryos to the same legal standard as children under state law. 

Millions of voters have already cast ballot for Nov 5 election

Millions of voters have already cast ballot for Nov 5 election

Early in-person and mail-in ballots have begun pouring in across the country, and the tally in each state reveals mounting voter enthusiasm.  Recent polling suggests a razor-thin margin in the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and the results are expected to come down to each candidate’s performance in seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina.  States have long allowed at least some Americans to vote early, like members of the military and people with illnesses unable to get to the polls. Many states expanded eligibility in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. WHAT ARE ELECTION BETTING ODDS? EXPERT EXPLAINS WHY TRUMP IS CURRENT FAVORITE In the last presidential election, mail ballots tended to skew Democratic. In 2020, 60% of Democrats reported voting by mail, compared to 32% of Republicans, according to a 2021 study from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. As of Monday evening, more than 15 million ballots have been cast nationwide. Here is a breakdown of where early ballots have been cast, either by mail or in person, in the seven battleground states, according to The Associated Press. Over the past two decades, the prevalence of early voting has skyrocketed. While early ballots demonstrate voter enthusiasm, they do not reliably determine which candidate is winning the race, because fewer voters are expected to cast early votes than in the previous presidential election.  In 2020, the Fox News Voter Analysis found that 71% of voters cast their ballots before Election Day, with 30% voting early in-person and 41% voting by mail. This time, polls suggest that around four in 10 voters will show up before Nov. 5, according to Gallup polling.  DOJ DEPLOYS DISTRICT ELECTIONS OFFICERS TO HANDLE ‘THREATS AND INTIMIDATION’ Democrats and Republicans are expected to be less divided on early voting this cycle. Four years ago, Democrats won the total early vote by 11 points. However, two things have changed: first, with the COVID-19 pandemic no longer front-of-mind, many voters will be more willing to show up on Election Day. Second, unlike in 2020, Trump and the GOP are no longer discouraging their voters from casting an early ballot. The upshot should be a smaller partisan gap once the votes are counted. Some states also offer breakdowns of their early ballots – for example, by party affiliation, race, or age. Comparing these results to other elections might give the impression that one candidate or party is now doing better than the other. Additionally, while early vote data shows the party registration of some voters, it does not reveal how they voted. States do not release actual vote counts until election night. The vote data that some states are releasing now shows the party affiliation of voters who have requested or returned a ballot. However, that is not the same as their actual vote. For example, a voter may have registered as a Democrat decades ago, but chose to vote for Trump this year. Many voters are not registered to either party, making their vote even more of a mystery.

Trump leads Harris in Georgia 2 weeks from Election Day, poll finds

Trump leads Harris in Georgia 2 weeks from Election Day, poll finds

Former President Donald Trump holds a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the key swing state of Georgia, according to a new poll. The poll, conducted by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia, found Trump at 47% support in the state, compared to Harris’ 43%. A sizable 8% of respondents said they remain undecided, however. The Georgia poll surveyed 1,000 of the state’s likely voters from Oct. 7-16. The poll advertises a margin of error of 3.1%. The poll further found that 60% of respondents say the country is on the wrong track, and their top issues were inflation/cost of living (19%), the economy/jobs (17%), preserving democracy (17%), immigration (14%) and abortion (8%). GEORGIA SHATTERS EARLY VOTING RECORDS AS CAMPAIGNS ENTER HOME STRETCH IN BATTLEGROUND STATE The poll comes as Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is facing pressure to release the results of a voter roll audit he announced this summer. HARRIS INVOKES JIMMY CARTER IN BID TO GET SUPPORTERS TO VOTE EARLY “Millions of illegal immigrants have flooded our country since 2021, and it’s well-documented that thousands of them have successfully registered to vote in multiple states. But even with early voting now underway, Georgia voters are still waiting for confirmation that non-citizens are not casting ballots in our elections,” former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who now serves as the chairwoman for the group behind the effort, Greater Georgia, said in a release obtained exclusively by Fox News Digital. The comments come more than three months after Raffensperger announced the state was conducting a “SAVE audit” of noncitizens who may have registered to vote, which he called a “vital step in maintaining election security and integrity in Georgia.” “We are double-checking to make sure that if any non-citizens attempt to register to vote, they will not be able to vote unless they prove that they are U.S. citizens,” Raffensberger said in a release at the time, which also warned of prison sentences of up to 10 years and fines of up to $100,000 for noncitizens who register to vote in the state. Raffensperger told NewsNation just a few weeks later that the audit was complete, boasting that he could promise residents of the state that “only American citizens are voting.” CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP Reached for comment by Fox News Digital, a spokesperson for the Georgia Secretary of State’s office said that Raffensperger will hold a press conference on Wednesday to announce the results of the audit. Fox News’ Michael Lee contributed to this report.